CNS：veteran economist forecasts China’s economic growth “no lower than 5%” in 2026
China News Service (CNS) issued a press release here on Tuesday to promote an expert forecast that China’s economic growth in year of 2026 would be “no lower than 5 percent”.
“The growth goal, usually to be formally announced during China’s annual legislative sessions in March, and aligning with historical patterns of previous five-year plan kick-offs, will not be lower that 5 percent”, CNS cited Tao Chuan, Chief Economist and Head of Macro Analysis at Guolian Minsheng Securities, as saying in the press release.
Tao said achieving this target is feasible, due to the underestimated export resilience and neglected consumption contributions in recent years.
The Chinese economy is going to display a new equilibrium in 2026, characterized by “robust exports, stable consumption, and moderated investment”, Tao said.
This marks a shift from the previous export-investment duality to an export-consumption driven model, he added.
On one end, exports are expected to continue outperforming overall GDP growth, supported by easing cyclical pressures and sustained structural demand, and on the other, consumption is likely to transition from short-term stimulus measures—such as the “trade-in” program for consumer durables—toward a more sustainable system focused on service sector expansion, Tao said.
He went on explaining that regulatory authorities in China are expected to deploy industrial policies to strengthen export competitiveness while using fiscal tools to boost household consumption, noting this two-pronged approach aims to ensure stability during the economic transition.
Tao also pointed out that the new growth pattern suggests that reflation will be gradual rather than immediate.
“While the Consumer Price Index (CPI) target for 2026 may be modestly lowered, it is still expected to show mild growth, supported by recovering service consumption and pro-livelihood policies”, he said.
The Producer Price Index (PPI), though likely to climb from current lows, may remain in negative territory year-on-year, Tao predicted, adding that analysis emphasizes that sustained month-on-month PPI improvement—rather than merely exiting negative year-on-year readings—will be crucial for corporate earnings and equity market stability.
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